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FINANCIAL TIMES
The outrage caused by Mr Duterte’s apparently uncontrollable furies has masked the canny manoeuvring of a veteran politician who swept to a surprise landslide election victory in May. His sales pitch mixes populism of the socially progressive left and the authoritarian right with a stand-up comedian’s urge to entertain — not to mention a blitheness about causing offence. “The Philippines audience appreciates the overall effect, whereas the international observers focus on the most insane comments,” says Richard Javad Heydarian, a Philippine political analyst, who identifies what he calls the “three Dutertes”: showman, punisher and power-playing Machiavelli. “That’s why he remains popular, but the world is revolted by him.” The 71-year-old Mr Duterte’s combative performance over the past week or so could serve as a microcosm of his presidency so far. On Sunday, he was saying sorry for the Hitler remarks, in which he said he would be glad to kill millions of drug addicts. By Tuesday, he was telling Mr Obama to “go to hell” and predicting that Manila would swap its military bearhug with the US for arms deals with Beijing and Moscow, potentially offering a chance for a territory-hungry China to dominate the sea of Southeast Asia. On Thursday, an independent opinion poll suggested more than three-quarters of Filipinos were satisfied with their shoot-from-the-hip leader’s performance so far. Important clues to understanding Mr Duterte are to be found in his upbringing on the conflict-racked southern island of Mindanao. He is the son of a fortune-seeking politician, Vicente Duterte, who served as governor of the province of Davao between 1959 and 1965. Walden Bello, an academic and former Philippine legislator, says Mr Duterte is a product of the “rough-and-tumble world of frontier politics” in an area where there have been long-running Islamist and communist insurgencies. The future president, an unmarried father of four children from previous relationships, first became mayor of Davao city in 1988, going on to serve in the post for more than 20 years. His ruthless crackdown on crime earned him popular support and the nickname “Duterte Harry”. When human rights groups claimed that death squads he supported were responsible for the deaths of 700 people, Mr Duterte retorted without shame that the number was more like 1,700. He has now taken the unapologetically tough-sheriff act to the presidential palace. This has had a dramatic impact on foreign policy, where Mr Duterte has softened the previous administration’s hardline opposition to China’s maritime claims and has bridled against western criticism of his human rights record. “He’s the kind of guy who identifies his persona with the state, and sees criticism of himself and his policies as undermining Philippine sovereignty,” Mr Bello says. “I think that’s what attracts him to China — the way the Chinese reject any criticism of their human rights record as an attack on Chinese sovereignty.” Another significant piece in the Duterte puzzle is his training as a lawyer and his cultivation of friendships and alliances with figures on the political left, some of whom have become ministers in his government. He has shown a common touch in promising measures to improve the everyday lives of ordinary Filipinos by restarting delayed rail projects and easing Manila’s notorious traffic gridlock. The president has also made the long and apparently intractable Mindanao peace process a priority and is trying to exploit his relationships with insurgency leaders. He has claimed Muslim heritage and even chanted “Allahu akbar” — God is great — while campaigning for the presidency. Mr Heydarian recalls asking only half-jokingly at a conference: “What if he gets nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize?” Mr Duterte’s most striking policy so far is a drug crackdown that has led to the deaths of more than 3,000 people, an estimated half of them killed extrajudicially. He has struck a popular chord because the country’s narcotics problem is undeniably huge and previous efforts to deal with it have failed, often falling prey to corruption. The tendency of otherwise decent human beings in dire straits to excuse brutal behaviour towards others has done the rest. “I know it’s not right,” said one Filipina, who asked not to be named, of a drugs war in which she described the deaths of innocents as necessary “sacrifices”. “But we have to do something. And we have to be tough.” As long such views prevail, Mr Duterte may continue to ride high. The risk for him is that his brazenness, geopolitical gambles and the dark side of his character will overwhelm him. He is still enjoying a political honeymoon and setting his course. There is plenty of time for public disillusionment with this most volatile of leaders to set in. |