FINANCIAL TIMES

10-11-16

China hawk or isolationist? Asia awaits the real Donald Trump

Next US president’s policy ‘can either make peace in the region or create mass chaos’

by: FT reporters

Donald Trump is likely to face an early test of will from China, according to Asian security experts, and the region is desperate to know how the president-elect of the world’s only superpower will react.

US allies and adversaries alike are wondering which is the real Donald Trump: the isolationist who says Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear weapons and pay for their own security, or the Republican who is surrounding himself with hawkish advisers on China.

Whatever that early test reveals is likely to determine how far the new US president will reshape the diplomacy of Asia, and whether traditional allies such as Taiwan continue to rely on US protection or make new arrangements for their security.

“China will probably keep adding pressure on the Trump government to test their limits,” said Ni Lexiong, a professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. “Trump’s election can either make peace in the east Asia region or create mass chaos.”

In 2001 the Hainan island incident, when a Chinese fighter collided with a US intelligence-gathering aircraft, applied heavy pressure early in the George W Bush presidency.

Mr Trump has already sought to reassure allies in Asia, speaking by telephone with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and President Park Geun-hye of South Korea. He strongly reaffirmed US support for both alliances.

Mr Abe plans to meet Mr Trump in New York next week. “His approach to Mr Trump should be very thoughtful,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University. “We don’t preach, we don’t reprimand, we try to work with him. If that works we can do business.”

Those early actions suggest the president-elect will act more like a traditional Republican. “The Chinese think they know businessmen, they know how to massage the ego of a powerful dictatorial strongman, so they think they can handle him,” said Yanmei Xie, China policy analyst for Gavekal Dragonomics. “But now his advisers are emerging and they hold very strong anti-Chinese views.”

Advisers to Mr Trump include Alexander Gray, who formerly worked for Republican Congressman Randy Forbes — an outspoken critic of China’s government; Mike Pillsbury, author of The Hundred Year Marathon, which argues that China is gearing up for world domination; and Peter Navarro, an academic who directed and produced the film Death By China: Confronting the Dragon.

If Mr Trump does indeed respond robustly to any Chinese test, US allies will breathe a sigh of relief and may well be willing to answer his demands by making at least symbolic efforts to raise their own defence budgets.

“Maybe we have to do a little bit more about our own defence,” said Yoshiji Nogami, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs. “I think Mr Abe is aware of that, although whether it’s acceptable to a majority of people here in Japan I don’t know.”

Until Mr Trump demonstrates his commitment to Asia, however, the region’s anxiety level will remain high.

“If Trump doesn’t think it is worth it to clash with Russia over Nato, I shudder to consider how he might feel about a clash with China over Taiwan,” said Nathan Batto, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a research body in Taipei.

The big changes in Asia will come if Mr Trump really pursues isolationism. “Given the stresses the US-South Korean alliance seems to be facing, Beijing is going to look for every way to insert itself,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul. “[It will do so] by both playing its strong cards — such as telling South Koreans ‘don’t install [US missile defence shield] Thaad’ — but also playing soft cards like, ‘look, you can rely on us and you can’t rely on the Americans’.”

“If this creates a power vacuum then it could create opportunities for China,” said Ms Xie. Some of the weaker countries could become more accommodating of Beijing, while stronger ones may boost their own defence capability. “Either way,” she said, “it could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Asia.”